Cascoon Line

As that's what happens with these pages initially, how about some random trivia:

The probability for having your Wurmple evolve to Silcoon is slightly higher than for it to evolve to Cascoon.

Here's why, for those who don't want to go on Bulbapedia and do the calculations yourselves:

Do you know how it's calculated?

The personality value of a Pokémon is a 32-bit unsigned integer. In Generation III and IV, the last 16 bits of it determine Wurmple's evolution, in Generation V the first 16 bits, I don't have data about Generation VI, it's not relevant, because the rest is exactly the same. Let's call that 16-bit number p. Because that's what Bulbapedia uses and I'm too lazy to add a subscript "w".

You take our p and calculate p%10 (modulo 10). If the result is lower than 5 (0-4), you get a Silcoon. If equal or higher (5-9) - a Cascoon.

In a full ten, it's equal, right? 0-4 gives you Silcoon, 5-9 gives you Cascoon.

But we don't have full tens here. We have 2^16 = 65536 numbers, from 0 to 65535, obviously.

So, from 0 all the way to 65529 it's completely equal, half of those (32765) being Silcoon, and the other half - Cascoon.

And then we have the numbers 65530-65535.

The first five (65530-65534) give you Silcoon, giving a total of 32770 in every 65536.

The number 65535 gives the result 5 from the modulo operation, so it gives you Cascoon, giving us a total of 32766 Cascoons per 65536 Wurmples, statistically.

That means that statistically, in every group of 65536 Wurmples there should be four more Silcoons than Cascoons upon evolution.

In percentages it gives:

  • 50,00305% for Silcoon
  • 49,99695% for Cascoon

As you can see, the difference is pretty much negligible.

But it exists and gives me useless random fun trivia (my favourite thing) to share with you.

Completed analyses of the Cascoon line so far: